Nobel Laureate Says: It’s Time To Ditch U.S. Stocks
Robert Shiller is a professor of economics at Yale University, a closely followed housing index is named in his honor, and in 2013, he won a Nobel Prize for his research in economics.
Between 2005 and 2007, he was one of the few who sounded the warning bells about a potential bubble in the U.S. and global housing markets.
Investors who followed Schiller’s advice avoided real estate at the top of a massive bubble. Investors who ignored him suffered huge losses.
Today, he’s warning of a new danger. And if history is any guide, it pays to listen.
“I’m thinking about getting out of the United States somewhat,” said Schiller in a February CNBC interview. “Europe is so much cheaper.” To that effect, he’s already invested in Spanish and Italian indexes.
Schiller’s decision is based on particular valuation models, which he developed.
He did this by looking at a common ratio, price-to-earnings, in a new light: adjusted for market cycles over a longer period of time. Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio is commonly referred to as the CAPE ratio.
Currently, the United States has a CAPE ratio of 28. As you can see, this divergence has international stocks undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts.
But I see two more important reasons the Nobel-prize winner is shifting into international stocks.
First: international economies are expected to grow much faster than the United States.
In 2014, developing countries overtook their developed counterparts in purchasing power — three years ahead of projections made by accounting firm PWC. By 2050, developing countries will have more than twice the purchasing power of developed countries.
Of course, S&P 500 companies will benefit from this trend. After all, they get about 50% of their revenue from international markets. But the real winners will be companies outside the United States — firms and funds most investors never hear about.
Second: those who follow Schiller’s advice will cash in on another unique benefit of international stocks: They pay huge yields.
In the United States, interest rates have been hammered into the ground. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding just 2%, while the S&P 500 yields about the same. What most investors don’t realize is that international stocks and bonds pay huge dividends in comparison.
These outsized yields from international stocks are a bastion of income for investors — especially retirees — being stung by record-low interest rates in the United States.
For investors who want to cash in on these international opportunities, The Mexico Fund (NYSE: MXF) is one of my favorite ways.
#-ad_banner-#It provides broad exposure to Mexico’s economy, which despite some negative publicity, boasts tremendous economic might in both production and natural resources.
It is currently the 14th largest economy in the world. The country is in the process of privatizing its energy industry, which is projected to be a strong catalyst for further growth.
Last Februray, credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded the country’s bonds to “investment grade” status. Mexico only the second Latin American country to have this coveted status.
The fund also pays one of the largest, most reliable dividends I’ve ever seen. Since 1983, MXF has paid a quarterly dividend — a run of more than 30 years. The fund adjusts its dividend payment every December to equal 10% of net asset value at the end of the year. And with an indicated yield of over 10%, it blows the S&P 500’s 2.0% yield out of the water.
But this is just one of the options investors have when it comes to earning yields from overseas. In fact, each month in my premium service, High-Yield International, I recommend a handful of reliable companies that pay robust dividends.
If there’s ever been a time to consider international high-yielders, then this is it. That’s why I’ve put together a special report that tells you everything you need to know about finding yields abroad. If you’re interested in capturing yields of 6%, 8% or even 11%, then I urge you to check it out. You can access the report here.