Throughout September and October, the market bagged impressive gains as strategists started to view the economy as healthy enough to avoid the dreaded “double-dip” recession. More recently, the market has lost a bit of that luster as investors realize that we’re not necessarily set for impressive growth in 2011 either. A just released survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) highlights expectations that the U.S. economy will grow just +2.7% this year and +2.6% in 2011. Their conclusion: “To a large extent, the latest NABE forecast reflects the view that… Read More

Throughout September and October, the market bagged impressive gains as strategists started to view the economy as healthy enough to avoid the dreaded “double-dip” recession. More recently, the market has lost a bit of that luster as investors realize that we’re not necessarily set for impressive growth in 2011 either. A just released survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) highlights expectations that the U.S. economy will grow just +2.7% this year and +2.6% in 2011. Their conclusion: “To a large extent, the latest NABE forecast reflects the view that the economy will struggle against financial headwinds.” And the absence of robust growth means many companies will struggle to boost sales in 2011 and some companies may actually see sales pull back next year. With that in mind, here’s a profile of five companies that are expected to see sales slump next year. AOL (NYSE: AOL) A year ago this week, this former Internet powerhouse came public again, and it has not been the hot stock that some had hoped. In the past four quarters it’s become increasingly… Read More

The company behind credit card swiping technology is now working on a system that enables you to “swipe and pay” with your mobile phone. The technology is considered by many experts to be the future of payment systems, so you can imagine the potential this company has. Read More

Here’s a fairly simple investment premise: if the stock market rises +10% or 15% in the next six months, one sector will rise +30% or even +50%. That’s because a rising stock market tends to bring out increased interest from individual investors. And they bring lots more business to online… Read More

As GM (NYSE: GM) celebrates an impressive re-entry into the public markets, investors are chewing over a clear theme. Both GM and Ford (NYSE: F) are far healthier companies, with much leaner cost structures and the ability to generate sharply improved profit margins as industry volumes rebound. In their shadow, key auto parts suppliers are also now in fighting shape after being bruised and battered in the economic freefall of 2008. The new adage for the industry: “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.” How bad did it get for… Read More

As GM (NYSE: GM) celebrates an impressive re-entry into the public markets, investors are chewing over a clear theme. Both GM and Ford (NYSE: F) are far healthier companies, with much leaner cost structures and the ability to generate sharply improved profit margins as industry volumes rebound. In their shadow, key auto parts suppliers are also now in fighting shape after being bruised and battered in the economic freefall of 2008. The new adage for the industry: “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.” How bad did it get for these auto parts suppliers? Domestic auto makers produced 15-16 million cars and trucks every year from 2001 to 2007. That figure fell to 12.5 million in 2008 and just 8.5 million in 2009. Years of steady profits were offset by massive losses in 2008 and 2009, and a number of these firms flirted with bankruptcy. For a short while, many of their stocks traded below $1. In a testament to just how much they have changed, all of the key players are likely to be nicely profitable again this year, even though the industry will produce just 11.5 million units. Read More

When money managers buy bonds offered by state and local governments, they gladly accept the tax-free interest payments that come with them. But they’re no fools. They know they can lose their investment if a state or local government goes into default. [See: “12 States in Financial Distress”] So these… Read More

Since the financial crisis in 2008, corporate executives have taken a cautious approach to making big decisions. This has been especially the case with mergers & acquisitions (M&A). But according to a recent survey from Thomson Reuters and Freeman (a consulting firm), it looks like 2011 is… Read More

Pity the average investor. They tend to jump into and out of the stock market at precisely the wrong times. In late August, I looked at the weekly investor sentiment poll conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and noted that most investors feared a big market tumble. [Read that article here] Historically speaking, you want to start buying stocks when most individual investors are shunning them. And that has once again proven to be the case. Since that August swoon, the S&P 500 has risen +14%. And like clockwork, that impressive performance has turned… Read More

Pity the average investor. They tend to jump into and out of the stock market at precisely the wrong times. In late August, I looked at the weekly investor sentiment poll conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and noted that most investors feared a big market tumble. [Read that article here] Historically speaking, you want to start buying stocks when most individual investors are shunning them. And that has once again proven to be the case. Since that August swoon, the S&P 500 has risen +14%. And like clockwork, that impressive performance has turned individual investors from bears to bulls. In the week ending November 10th, 57.6% of retail investors were bullish, according to the latest AAII poll. That’s up +9.3 percentage points from the prior week, and the most bullish reading since January 2007. So if bearish sentiment is always good for stocks, is bullish sentiment always bad for stocks? I pored over 25 years’ worth of data to gauge the market’s subsequent returns every time investors were more than 55% bullish. The results are mixed… An unusual spike… Read More

The initial public offering (IPO) market continues to heat up with deals coming this week for GM (NYSE: GM), Booz Allen (NYSE: BAH), Caesars Entertainment (NYSE: CZR) and a half dozen other firms. The flurry of deals puts us on track for the most robust quarter for IPOs in more than two years. And looking at the pipeline of new deal registrations, the first quarter of 2011 may be even hotter. I recently looked at a strategy that uses analyst research to find stocks about to pop. [See: “The Secret… Read More

The initial public offering (IPO) market continues to heat up with deals coming this week for GM (NYSE: GM), Booz Allen (NYSE: BAH), Caesars Entertainment (NYSE: CZR) and a half dozen other firms. The flurry of deals puts us on track for the most robust quarter for IPOs in more than two years. And looking at the pipeline of new deal registrations, the first quarter of 2011 may be even hotter. I recently looked at a strategy that uses analyst research to find stocks about to pop. [See: “The Secret Way to Play IPOs”] Yet that’s not the only way to look for upside among recent new deals. You can also scan lists for “broken IPOs,” which are firms that have been public for a short while and are drifting lower while investors focus on more established companies. Last month, I took a look at top-performing IPOs, as I wrote back then, “many new IPOs take time to find their sea legs and only take off well after their debuts. In fact, every single stock [mentioned in that piece] came out of the gate… Read More

We’re now in a “stock picker’s market.” The major averages are now moving sideways after a sustained two-month upward move, which means that stock selection becomes ever more crucial. In this kind of trading environment, it pays to see what’s working. Insights into why certain stocks are… Read More

We are now only two weeks away from what my systems are telling me should be a major market correction. My advice to you is to raise stops and consider taking profits. That is of course, if you happen to not believe that the Federal Reserve can simply overwhelm a… Read More