Four years ago this week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an important milestone: 12,000. A year later, in October 2007, the venerable index moved past 14,000. But by October 2008, headlines blared “Dow 8,000” before eventually bottoming at 7,200 in March of 2009. A furious rebound has the Dow back on the rise, surging +54% in the past 19 months to a recent 11,100. A continued march back to 12,000 is no sure thing, as serious headwinds remain, leading some to expect we’ll see “Dow 10,000” before “Dow 12,000.”… Read More

Four years ago this week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an important milestone: 12,000. A year later, in October 2007, the venerable index moved past 14,000. But by October 2008, headlines blared “Dow 8,000” before eventually bottoming at 7,200 in March of 2009. A furious rebound has the Dow back on the rise, surging +54% in the past 19 months to a recent 11,100. A continued march back to 12,000 is no sure thing, as serious headwinds remain, leading some to expect we’ll see “Dow 10,000” before “Dow 12,000.” One thing’s for sure: recent history tells us that the Dow is unlikely to stay put where it is right now. Volatility is the name of the game these days, so let’s look at three positive and three negative catalysts that could push or pull the Dow to the next milestone. Any of these factors may play out over the next six months. The positive catalysts: 1. Sustained profit growth. Earnings season is off to a robust start. Thus far, more than 80%… Read More

I spend the vast majority of my time hunting down securities I believe are significantly undervalued and investigating those in great detail I believe have considerable upside potential. However, it’s also a valuable exercise to spend some time on the opposite end of the spectrum and analyze what I find… Read More

I continue to be very uneasy about the market and believe it could begin trending lower at any time, so my natural inclination is buy inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are baskets of stocks that move higher when the market moves lower. I gave you a great inverse ETF a couple of weeks ago, ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS). I recommended this ETF because my systems were telling me then, and they continue to tell me now, that this market could move lower in the near term — perhaps a lot lower. But, what… Read More

I continue to be very uneasy about the market and believe it could begin trending lower at any time, so my natural inclination is buy inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are baskets of stocks that move higher when the market moves lower. I gave you a great inverse ETF a couple of weeks ago, ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS). I recommended this ETF because my systems were telling me then, and they continue to tell me now, that this market could move lower in the near term — perhaps a lot lower. But, what did the market do last week? It moved high enough to stop us out of the SDS trade. But remember: I am a rules-based investor. I have rules for getting into a position and rules for getting out. The rules for getting in are still flashing “Short!” But just because I have a rule that tells me when to short the market, it doesn’t mean that I ignore my rules for getting out of a trade. There is an old saying that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. One of these days,… Read More

You have to hand it to the executives at Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD). They struggled to raise the $52 billion necessary to buy out the Busch family and all other shareholders and were pilloried in the press for vastly overpaying for the venerable brewer. Management made lofty… Read More

My trading idea for this week is a company that is experiencing rising sales and profits, despite the weak overall economy in the United States. The company is experiencing a steady flow of orders, cutting costs, and has been able to pay a… Read More

Voters across the political spectrum can agree on at least one thing: the long-term health of the U.S. economy absolutely depends on jobs being created by the private sector. So Friday’s report that 64,000 private sector jobs were created is a hopeful sign, though… Read More

On a recent trip to Boulder, CO, I stood outside a Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) showroom ogling its sports cars with lust in my heart. A few weeks later, when a Tesla roadster whooshed silently past me on a New York City street, my heart skipped a beat. Tesla makes the kinds of cars that auto enthusiasts lust after. Then again, I have a short attention span. Minutes later, a Porsche 911 zoomed past me with its inimitable throaty growl, and my lust was re-directed. My fickle tastes highlight a real problem for Tesla. The company is… Read More

On a recent trip to Boulder, CO, I stood outside a Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) showroom ogling its sports cars with lust in my heart. A few weeks later, when a Tesla roadster whooshed silently past me on a New York City street, my heart skipped a beat. Tesla makes the kinds of cars that auto enthusiasts lust after. Then again, I have a short attention span. Minutes later, a Porsche 911 zoomed past me with its inimitable throaty growl, and my lust was re-directed. My fickle tastes highlight a real problem for Tesla. The company is aiming to crack two auto market niches, though success looks like a long shot in each. The car faces heady competition in a crowded sports car field, and the electric car market is also about to get crowded. Investor message boards are filled with Tesla’s vitriolic detractors and even more rabid supporters. So I won’t weigh in as to whether Tesla builds the world’s coolest cars or simply overpriced go-karts. The truth lies somewhere in between. Others suggest that Tesla isn’t a car company, so much as a technology development company. Hogwash. This is… Read More

An extremely valuable investment strategy is to keep tabs on what the major players on Wall Street are doing with their money. Warren Buffett, George Soros, Bill Gross, Mario Gabelli and Jeremy Grantham quickly come to mind — especially considering they are more than willing to put their own money… Read More

It is the job of every Wall Street analyst (known as a “sell-sider”) to convince clients to buy stocks on their buy list. Those clients — hedge funds and mutual funds also known as “buy-siders” — give the ideas a listen, but often… Read More

As we’ve been discussing throughout the past six months, a range-bound market means you’re likely better off moving in and out of certain stocks and sectors as they prove timely. Buy-and-hold appears dead for now, although few have the ability to profit from very short-term trades either. Costco (Nasdaq: COST) highlights the value of a “mid-term trade.” In just six weeks, investors have made about +25% from this investment. Yet Wednesday’s quarterly report from this retailer tells us it’s time to “sell on the news.” Whenever you see… Read More

As we’ve been discussing throughout the past six months, a range-bound market means you’re likely better off moving in and out of certain stocks and sectors as they prove timely. Buy-and-hold appears dead for now, although few have the ability to profit from very short-term trades either. Costco (Nasdaq: COST) highlights the value of a “mid-term trade.” In just six weeks, investors have made about +25% from this investment. Yet Wednesday’s quarterly report from this retailer tells us it’s time to “sell on the news.” Whenever you see a stock make a solid move as Costco has, it leads you to wonder if business is trending well ahead of expectations. That’s why it makes sense to hang on and see how quarterly results fare. I’ve noticed solid upward moves in four other retail pays I track; Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), Leapfrog Enterprises (NYSE: LF), Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) and Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG). Is business improving for these firms, or is the recent spike in Costco and these other companies’ shares simply due to a re-rotation back into retail?… Read More