The Prophets Of Doom Are Growing Louder…
Look through most financial news and opinion websites… and you’ll find an increasing number of write ups warning of impending doom.
Everything from the overbought Goldman Sachs Bull-Bear Index I told my Profit Amplifier readers about two weeks ago to this week’s comments from perma-bear Albert Edwards, is cautioning all of us “Kool-Aid drinkers” that a full blown recession is just months away.
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The fact is that many of these ultra-conservative perma-bears, as they are called, are simply voices of extreme reason (aka, the boy(s) who cried wolf), reminding us of all the missteps governments and investors are supposedly making and calling out the cyclical (or contrived) downturns that are inevitable from time to time.
#-ad_banner-#Unfortunately, even if what they are saying makes sense, their timing is usually way off, reducing their viability until something really happens. When a crisis does occur, these personalities are thrust into the spotlight and held up as sages — to be used as freshly dried kindling when the fires of correction begin to burn.
Many of these types, like the famous Nouriel Roubini (also known as “Dr. Doom”), do help keep some of the blind bulls in check but often miss out on tremendous upside due to their stubborn logic. If we listened to every caution they offered, we’d rarely have a long position.
And while it’s hard to constantly listen to opinions and facts that fly in the face of what you believe, ignoring them can be foolish as well. Knowing this fact, I continue to observe and record the warnings as they get slightly louder, week by week. When the whisper turns into a shout, the time to actually listen may be upon us.
“Dr. Doom” Issues A New Warning
Mr. Roubini, an economist and teacher at NYU, is now calling for a full-blown financial crisis by 2020, coinciding with the end of massive, decade-long global stimulus as the catalyst, along with leverage and a global economic slowdown. He then goes on to list 10 reasons why this is likely to happen.
Of course, a lot has to happen for his vision to come to fruition; the biggest of which is the shifting of how the majority of market participants feel about these data sets and their trajectory — and that’s an unknown that no scholar can predict.
Regardless, his points are valid, and I will continue to monitor the flow of the slowly increasing bearish voice.
For Now, The Trajectory For Stocks Is Up
All this bear talk aside, major U.S. indexes were looking quite strong over the past week as the S&P 500 broke out to the upside with a vengeance on Sept. 20 of September. This bullish behavior falls in line with what I have been predicting over the past few weeks.
The breakout, if it holds, will help the index establish a stronger base of support in the S&P 500 around the 2,900/2,910 level. This is more good news for bulls as retracements now have a “holding area.”
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As I’ve stated before, my Profit Amplifier readers and I plan to ride this wave until the end of October ahead of the November elections, as they still seem like the biggest logical catalyst for a correction.
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