5 Emerging Markets that are Beating Inflation
It might sound like heresy to be looking at emerging market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from the long side right now. After all, emerging markets have been some of the hardest-hit during the past few weeks of market losses. But as the old expression goes: “When there’s blood in the streets, buy.” That said, emerging markets ETFs were experiencing an array of problems before the U.S. debt ceiling debate touched off, before global investors fretted over a double-dip recession and before Standard & Poor’s pared Uncle Sam’s credit rating.
In 2011, inflation has become a four-letter word for emerging markets all over the world, hanging like the sword of Damocles over scores of emerging markets ETFs this year, including many of 2010’s highest flyers.
Worse yet, policymakers from Beijing to Sao Paulo have been unable to effectively fight the scourge of inflation. Brazil is a prime example. What was once an emerging markets darling, the “B” in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) quartet has seen its benchmark stock index, the Bovespa, officially enter bear market territory as eight interest rate hikes in the past 15 months have done little to stem the tide of inflation.
Now the question in the back of investors’ minds should be: “When this market gets its act together, where do I turn for emerging market growth while dodging the specter of inflation?” Let’s look at some of the answers.
1) Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (NYSE: IDX)
Before global equity markets jumped off a cliff at the end of July, IDX had resumed its leadership role as one of the best-performing emerging markets ETFs on the market. Focusing solely on inflation, that move is almost odd, considering IDX and its rival, the iShares MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE: EIDO), were battered early this year almost solely on inflation concerns.
Whatever Bank Indonesia, the country’s central bank, did to assuage inflation concerns should be mimicked by other countries, because it worked. Through May, inflation had dipped for four straight months. Should that condition persist, IDX and EIDO become alluring buy-on-the-dip candidates once the market’s recent storm clears.
2) iShares Chile Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE: ECH)
Chile is known a major copper producer. This is a dubious honor when the global economic growth is being called into question left and right, but if there is a silver (not copper) lining when it comes to Chile’s economic outlook it is this: inflation slowed for a second straight month in July and it would appear the South American nation is making far better inflation-fighting progress than Brazil.
3) Market Vectors Poland ETF (NYSE: PLND)
Getting excited about PLND and its rival, the iShares MSCI Poland Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE: EPOL), is hard for two reasons. First, both ETFs are plays on a European country. Poland isn’t a member of the European Union, but there is still the guilt by association factor. Second, the charts of both ETFs look terrible.
Neither ETF needs to be bought immediately, but in the hunt for emerging markets fare where inflation is at least worse than it is in Brazil or China, Poland deserves this much credit: after inflation touched a 10-year high in May, it declined in June and July.
4) Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX)
In the face of plunging oil prices, it’s hard to get excited about any ETF that allocates more than a third of its weight to energy stocks. This is just what RSX does, but consumer prices in Russia rose in July at a slower clip than they did in June and the central bank has left rates unchanged for three straight months. Before the market meltdown, Russia was the best performer in 2011 of the BRIC group. When oil prices bounce back, a lot of investors will wish they had paid more attention to RSX under $30.
5) iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE: EWW)
There is guilt by association and then there is guilt by proximity. Mexico and EWW suffer from the latter. Sharing a border and deep economic ties with the United States isn’t all it’s cracked up to be these days, but the International Monetary Fund is forecasting Mexican economic growth of 4.5% this year with an inflation environment it deems “benign.” For investors, this is the best possible adjective that can be used to describe inflation in a particular country, because it means the economy is growing at a decent pace and things aren’t getting out of hand.
This may not sound like a ringing endorsement to run out and buy EWW today. This is another emerging-markets ETF that could have some more downside in it, but it could be added to your personal watch-list for when selling pressure abates.
Action to Take–> Avoid emerging markets fraught with inflation like the plague in this environment. This means it’s still too early to take anything more than small nibbles at the likes of Brazil and India, but of the countries highlighted here, Indonesia has the most compelling mix of controlled inflation and potential to outperform comparable emerging markets. Russia is a buy when oil prices rebound.
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