The Time to Invest in the Next Emerging Markets is NOW
Frontier markets — the term is getting a lot of coverage these days. Last May, I wrote an article for Street Authority imploring readers to get invested in the next Brazil, Russia, India and China. I still feel strongly that the opportunity is great and the time is right to get invested in the “New Frontier.”
Experts in the field of emerging markets have been publishing several books during the past year. Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, was the visionary who coined the term BRIC, predicting that the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China would propel the global economy with superior rates of growth. As right as he was, his predictions fell short of identifying the incredible influence the BRICs were to have.
For the 10 years ended June 30, 2012, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index averaged gains of about 14% a year. This is almost 9% more per year than the S&P 500 over the same period.
A $10,000 investment in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) would have grown to around $16,800 over the 10 years. $10,000 invested in the iShares Emerging Markets Index ETF (NYSE: EEM), on the other hand, would have grown to more than $40,000 over the same period.
#-ad_banner-# You may have missed out on those returns, but the investment opportunity is still young for the next group of emerging countries.
But beware: despite this incredible disparity in returns, asset allocation models utilized by most brokerage firms and financial advisors are still overly biased toward U.S. and developed-market companies. Your advisor may try to convince you that the best days have passed for emerging-market countries. But even as a couple of BRIC economies slow, the next wave of emerging markets is picking up speed. It is the frontier markets that are expected to replicate or even exceed the performance of the BRICs in the coming decades.
The best places to invest
Another innovator, Mark Mobius, who is possibly the first true emerging-market specialist, has also published a new book: Passport to Profits. In it Mobius shares his experiences from more than a quarter century pursuing opportunities in emerging markets. The book outlines 84 rules that he follows in search of profitable investments. Mobius lives in hotels and spends all of his time on the ground in emerging countries in search of early inroads. He believes the best place to have your money invested is in emerging markets, including a slowing-but-not-stopping China, and especially the frontier countries.
Here are several options…
1) Claymore/BNY Mellon Frontier Markets ETF (NYSE: FRN) — this ETF provides exposure to companies in Egypt, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Chile, Poland, Lebanon, Peru and Oman, among others.
2) Market Vectors Africa ETF (NYSE: AFK) — This ETF provides exposure to both South Africa and North Africa, including Morocco, Nigeria and Egypt.
3) WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Fund (NYSE: GULF) — The dividend yield on this ETF is more than 7%. GULF will provide investors who want frontier market exposure with access to about 70 dividend-paying companies listed in Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
There are also country-specific ETFs, like the iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund (NYSE: EWY). It invests exclusively in South Korea and is certainly worth considering. But remember, the more specific the focus of an investment, the greater the risk.
The aforementioned Mobius manages a traditional mutual fund, the Templeton Frontier Markets A (Nasdaq: TFMAX). But beware of fees. TFMAX has a 5.8% sales charge when you buy it. TFMAX also has annual expenses of 2.1%. Both numbers compare very unfavorably with ETFs. The higher fees could be justified, however, if Mobius can produce superior returns.
Risk to Consider: There is overlap among ETFs and mutual funds, so be careful when investing in them. You need to know what percentage exposure to which countries each fund has. Diversification is the objective, but accidental concentration in one country or region can spoil a good plan.
Action to Take –> Invest in the Frontier Markets today. The opportunity is big and the investment choices for individual investors are increasing. Getting in now is getting in early enough to participate in what should prove to be higher rates of growth than is likely in developed markets. But please diversify, especially if using country and region specific funds. But whatever you do, start now, before the superior rates of return once again pass you by.