Analyst Articles

Dividend investing is one of the most popular themes among investors — and rightfully so. Multiple studies have confirmed the market-busting returns of dividend stocks. Ned Davis Research found that over the four decades through 2014, dividend-paying stocks returned 7.6% on an annualized basis versus just 2.6% from stocks that paid no dividend. And that’s just the companies that kept their payouts consistent. Companies that regularly increased their dividend payouts returned 10.1% annually. #-ad_banner-#Not only do dividend stocks often outperform their non-dividend peers but they do it with less risk. Over the five years through 2015,… Read More

Dividend investing is one of the most popular themes among investors — and rightfully so. Multiple studies have confirmed the market-busting returns of dividend stocks. Ned Davis Research found that over the four decades through 2014, dividend-paying stocks returned 7.6% on an annualized basis versus just 2.6% from stocks that paid no dividend. And that’s just the companies that kept their payouts consistent. Companies that regularly increased their dividend payouts returned 10.1% annually. #-ad_banner-#Not only do dividend stocks often outperform their non-dividend peers but they do it with less risk. Over the five years through 2015, dividend stocks recorded a standard deviation (a measure of risk in returns) of just 10.0 versus 14.3 for non-dividend payers. But historically-low interest rates have forced investors out of bonds and into dividend stocks for yield. Valuations look stretched and the U.S. economy just recorded its slowest growth in three years. While there’s no reason to believe that dividend stocks won’t continue to outperform the market going forward, investors can’t ignore record-high valuations after eight years of surging stock prices. It does little good to grab a hefty 3% dividend if valuations collapse and prices fall 10% or more. But… Read More

The S&P500 has gone nowhere since mid-February as investors start to wonder how much farther the bull can run. Fears over geopolitical issues, weakening expectations for earnings and the economy, and doubts on tax reform have all put investors on edge. The VIX volatility index, also known as the “Fear Gauge,” jumped 29% to 15.9 over the first two weeks of April to reach its highest point this year. A total of 527 companies cut their dividend payments at the height of the financial crisis in 2009 and only the most stalwart dividend-payers survived. Even bellwether names like General Electric,… Read More

The S&P500 has gone nowhere since mid-February as investors start to wonder how much farther the bull can run. Fears over geopolitical issues, weakening expectations for earnings and the economy, and doubts on tax reform have all put investors on edge. The VIX volatility index, also known as the “Fear Gauge,” jumped 29% to 15.9 over the first two weeks of April to reach its highest point this year. A total of 527 companies cut their dividend payments at the height of the financial crisis in 2009 and only the most stalwart dividend-payers survived. Even bellwether names like General Electric, Dow Chemical, and JP Morgan cut their payments to investors. Protecting your portfolio from falling stock prices and dividend cuts today means finding companies with sustainable dividends from strong cash flows and a best-of-breed brand. When looking for which stocks have the highest dividends, I use four fundamental factors to find the companies with the commitment and cash flow to keep putting money in my pocket. Seeking Sustainable Dividends Against Market Stress First-quarter earnings are slowly starting to come in and the results are a mixed bag. The S&P 500 closed flat last week as investors started to question… Read More

Tensions between the United States and North Korea have flared in recent weeks after Pyongyang conducted missile tests. President Trump, meanwhile, recently ordered strikes in Syria and Afghanistan and has stated that the United States will not tolerate much more belligerence from North Korea. While Kim Jong-un has played this dangerous game of brinkmanship in the past, recent events risk boiling over into a full-blown conflict. Neither side looks likely to back down. North Korea put its army on ‘maximum alert’ and the United States is moving warships within striking distance. Even a brief conflict is sure to scare the… Read More

Tensions between the United States and North Korea have flared in recent weeks after Pyongyang conducted missile tests. President Trump, meanwhile, recently ordered strikes in Syria and Afghanistan and has stated that the United States will not tolerate much more belligerence from North Korea. While Kim Jong-un has played this dangerous game of brinkmanship in the past, recent events risk boiling over into a full-blown conflict. Neither side looks likely to back down. North Korea put its army on ‘maximum alert’ and the United States is moving warships within striking distance. Even a brief conflict is sure to scare the markets into a correction, but one group of companies could see an even bigger risk from geo-political instability. Is The World Marching To War? A day before President Trump met with China’s President Xi Jinping, North Korea tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. territory of Guam. These missile tests are nothing new for the belligerent Asian nation but recent tests have raised the stakes in its game of nuclear cat-and-mouse with the West. #-ad_banner-#Satellite images show what could be preparations for a sixth nuclear test at Mount Mantap, the mile-high peak where North Korea conducts… Read More

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) kicks off first-quarter earnings season on April 24. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research expect S&P 500 companies to report 9.1% annual earnings growth. That’s down from the 12.5% growth expected when the first quarter began, but would still represent the strongest move in five years. Sales growth, expected at 7.2% for the market index, is also expected to post the strongest year-over-year growth since 2011. #-ad_banner-#On top of strong earnings growth, U.S. companies get a near-term boost from recent weakness in the dollar as they translate foreign earnings. Loosening regulations could also lift specific sectors. Against this… Read More

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) kicks off first-quarter earnings season on April 24. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research expect S&P 500 companies to report 9.1% annual earnings growth. That’s down from the 12.5% growth expected when the first quarter began, but would still represent the strongest move in five years. Sales growth, expected at 7.2% for the market index, is also expected to post the strongest year-over-year growth since 2011. #-ad_banner-#On top of strong earnings growth, U.S. companies get a near-term boost from recent weakness in the dollar as they translate foreign earnings. Loosening regulations could also lift specific sectors. Against this strength in fundamentals we find a market that has stalled near record highs and investors hesitant to buy in at lofty valuations. After jumping 3.9% in February, the S&P 500 has flatlined as investors wait for earnings confirmation to push higher. The next few weeks could give us that confirmation — or it could bring the long overdue correction for which the bears have been waiting. I’ve found three sectors and three leaders in each with the potential to surprise to the upside, providing investors with a reason to send shares higher for the rest of the year. Three Value… Read More

The run in the S&P 500 since the election, accounting for more than 13% of the market’s 14.7% increase over the last year, has pushed stocks to rare valuations. Stocks in the broad-market index are now trading at an average of 17.5 times analysts’ expectations for earnings over the next year, a premium of 25% on the 10-year average price-to-expected earnings. The optimism is in contrast to the fact that earnings forecasts are starting to come down, with analysts now expecting growth of just 9% when first-quarter numbers start coming out. This is considerably lower than the 12% earnings growth… Read More

The run in the S&P 500 since the election, accounting for more than 13% of the market’s 14.7% increase over the last year, has pushed stocks to rare valuations. Stocks in the broad-market index are now trading at an average of 17.5 times analysts’ expectations for earnings over the next year, a premium of 25% on the 10-year average price-to-expected earnings. The optimism is in contrast to the fact that earnings forecasts are starting to come down, with analysts now expecting growth of just 9% when first-quarter numbers start coming out. This is considerably lower than the 12% earnings growth expected when the quarter started in January. One sector in particular has boomed with last year’s stimulus in China and hopes for stimulus this year in the world’s largest economy. Bull markets don’t die of old age, and this one could be ready to move higher if Washington comes through with tax reform and fiscal stimulus. I’ve found three value plays in a sector that stands to benefit directly from this upside. These three names will allow investors to participate in potential growth and should provide protection from downside risks. Can Materials Build Off Recent Gains? Morningstar calls recent… Read More

Last month, Reuters uncovered an internal report from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security estimating the cost of a border wall with Mexico at $21.6 billion. The report projected a timeframe of nearly four years for construction. Whatever your view on the wall may be, that is a huge project. It amounts to more than a full year of sales at Fluor Corp (NYSE: FLR), the world’s largest engineering firm by revenue, or 5.6 times annual revenue at leading industrial materials firm Martin Marietta Materials (NYSE: MLM). Can companies afford to pass up the opportunity to… Read More

Last month, Reuters uncovered an internal report from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security estimating the cost of a border wall with Mexico at $21.6 billion. The report projected a timeframe of nearly four years for construction. Whatever your view on the wall may be, that is a huge project. It amounts to more than a full year of sales at Fluor Corp (NYSE: FLR), the world’s largest engineering firm by revenue, or 5.6 times annual revenue at leading industrial materials firm Martin Marietta Materials (NYSE: MLM). Can companies afford to pass up the opportunity to bid on such a project? One company did just that, publicly refusing to participate. It’s one of the largest cement producers in North America and could have made billions on materials sales. But this company may still win out and, even better, shares are attractively-priced for strong 2017 fundamentals. #-ad_banner-# The Surprising Winner In The Border Wall Construction It wasn’t a complete surprise when $12 billion Cemex (NYSE: CX) didn’t show up on the list of initial bidders for the border wall project issued by the Department of Homeland Security.  The Mexican industrial company has a huge footprint in… Read More

This is BIG… For the first time since 1933, the SEC is now allowing regular people like you and me to invest in brand-new explosive-growth companies BEFORE THEY GO PUBLIC. Imagine getting in on the next Facebook for 33 cents a share or the next Apple at 78 cents. In StreetAuthority’s Pre-IPO Millionaire, I vet six to eight deals like this one, and offer my exclusive in-depth analysis of a single opportunity that I believe could return 1,000% or more. Click here for more information. — Joseph Hogue, CFA The Boston University School of Medicine estimated in 1900 that 80%… Read More

This is BIG… For the first time since 1933, the SEC is now allowing regular people like you and me to invest in brand-new explosive-growth companies BEFORE THEY GO PUBLIC. Imagine getting in on the next Facebook for 33 cents a share or the next Apple at 78 cents. In StreetAuthority’s Pre-IPO Millionaire, I vet six to eight deals like this one, and offer my exclusive in-depth analysis of a single opportunity that I believe could return 1,000% or more. Click here for more information. — Joseph Hogue, CFA The Boston University School of Medicine estimated in 1900 that 80% of the children in Boston suffered from rickets, a softening of the bones and a symptom of vitamin D deficiency. Dairies started adding vitamin D to milk in the 1930s, helping about a third of the population that got insufficient amounts of the vitamin and the incidence of rickets in Boston dropped to almost nothing. These days, almost all milk is fortified with vitamin D and other minerals. It’s an industry standard that we take for granted but one that provides a huge benefit to society. #-ad_banner-#Now comes an exciting development about a healthy fortification of a different sort. In… Read More

Few industries have been hit as hard as pharmaceuticals over the past year. From public outrage over price increases to the potential for government oversight into profits, the group hasn’t enjoyed the double-digit gains seen across the rest of the market. Drugmakers and investors thought they dodged a bullet in the presidential election, but the new administration has been just as vocal about drug prices as the last. In this darkest hour, there may be some light shining through to the rest of the year. A new leader at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) could end the industry’s drought… Read More

Few industries have been hit as hard as pharmaceuticals over the past year. From public outrage over price increases to the potential for government oversight into profits, the group hasn’t enjoyed the double-digit gains seen across the rest of the market. Drugmakers and investors thought they dodged a bullet in the presidential election, but the new administration has been just as vocal about drug prices as the last. In this darkest hour, there may be some light shining through to the rest of the year. A new leader at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) could end the industry’s drought of approvals. The fundamental shift to an older society continues to support higher sales and Washington has yet to put together a plan that would threaten pricing. I’ve been following the best-of-breed companies in the space, waiting for a potential turnaround in investor sentiment. That turnaround may be coming — and it could happen just as two leaders boost sales with new blockbuster drugs. Pharma Is Ready To Bounce Back Pharmaceutical companies have been rocked over the past year on regulatory oversight and patient anger over drug pricing. The PowerShares Dynamic Pharmaceuticals ETF (NYSE: PJP) is up just 2.8%… Read More

This is BIG… For the first time since 1933, the SEC is now allowing regular people like you and me to invest in brand-new explosive-growth companies BEFORE THEY GO PUBLIC. Imagine getting in on the next Facebook for 33 cents a share or the next Apple at 78 cents. In StreetAuthority’s Pre-IPO Millionaire, I vet six to eight deals like this one, and offer my exclusive in-depth analysis of a single opportunity that I believe could return 1,000% or more. Click here for more information. — Joseph Hogue, CFA For that half of the population who maybe didn’t already realize… Read More

This is BIG… For the first time since 1933, the SEC is now allowing regular people like you and me to invest in brand-new explosive-growth companies BEFORE THEY GO PUBLIC. Imagine getting in on the next Facebook for 33 cents a share or the next Apple at 78 cents. In StreetAuthority’s Pre-IPO Millionaire, I vet six to eight deals like this one, and offer my exclusive in-depth analysis of a single opportunity that I believe could return 1,000% or more. Click here for more information. — Joseph Hogue, CFA For that half of the population who maybe didn’t already realize this, let it be known that women’s fashion is not inexpensive. Luxury fashion prices have shot up 60% over the last decade, nearly twice the rate of overall consumer inflation. A single dress can cost several thousand dollars. To make matters worse, the rise of social media has shortened the season for luxury fashion. Whereas many designers used to produce a spring and fall season, now many are launching four product lines a year to keep up with changing tastes. #-ad_banner-#A 2015 survey of 1,500 women by Barnardo’s, a British charity, found that respondents considered an item ‘old’ after wearing… Read More

As stocks start to wobble after a nine-year bull market, one industry looks like it could break higher over the next few years. This industry missed out on the spectacular bull market gains because of overbuilding, but last year’s collapse in prices could bring a rebound off multi-decade lows. An ETF tracking the industry plunged 63% to its low last year from a high in 2011, but has since rebounded 20% as early evidence of a recovery becomes clear. The selloff was so drastic that even the largest players in the space are now small-cap companies. But now industry is… Read More

As stocks start to wobble after a nine-year bull market, one industry looks like it could break higher over the next few years. This industry missed out on the spectacular bull market gains because of overbuilding, but last year’s collapse in prices could bring a rebound off multi-decade lows. An ETF tracking the industry plunged 63% to its low last year from a high in 2011, but has since rebounded 20% as early evidence of a recovery becomes clear. The selloff was so drastic that even the largest players in the space are now small-cap companies. But now industry is clearing its overcapacity issues and demand fundamentals are picking up. This confluence of events could just make it one of the biggest investing themes of the year. Shakeout In Shipping Helps Fuel A Recovery The boom in commodity prices just after the Great Recession drove many in the shipping industry to rapidly expand their fleets. Fleet growth exploded from 2009 through 2012, with the industry increasing the number of ships in service by an average of 14% a year. The oversupply in shipping caused the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an assessment of the price to move major raw materials… Read More