Are you worried about a recession? I’m guessing that you are – but probably not so much as to affect your spending (yet, anyway). On average, the American consumer is feeling just fine. Actually, more than “just fine,” as we learned after the Commerce Department issued its monthly retail sales update. Sales at the U.S. shops, restaurants and online retailers rose 0.7% in July from the previous month — the highest monthly increase since March — and were higher than a year earlier by 3.4%. While spending in some categories, including furniture retailers and automotive purchases, was weak, spending in… Read More

Are you worried about a recession? I’m guessing that you are – but probably not so much as to affect your spending (yet, anyway). On average, the American consumer is feeling just fine. Actually, more than “just fine,” as we learned after the Commerce Department issued its monthly retail sales update. Sales at the U.S. shops, restaurants and online retailers rose 0.7% in July from the previous month — the highest monthly increase since March — and were higher than a year earlier by 3.4%. While spending in some categories, including furniture retailers and automotive purchases, was weak, spending in others surged. Consumers spent more than $137.7 billion online — a record amount. And our appetite for dining out and eating takeout drove U.S. restaurant spending higher by 1.3%, to $61.6 billion, in July. Taken alone, this number might not look all that impressive. But the increase means that restaurants as a group have been doing better than the average retailer. Moreover, this also means that the annualized rate of growth in the money spent at restaurants over the past three months stands at a massive 25.3% — the fastest pace on record (with numbers going back to 1992). The… Read More

Market volatility is back. And it didn’t take long. From the low of the year set on July 24, the CBOE Volatility Index — also known as the Fear Index or simply the VIX — doubled less than two weeks later, rallying on August 5 to levels not seen since early January. Of course, by the end of the week, stocks recovered about half of their Monday losses (and ended the week 2.8% down). The volatility, accordingly, let up a little. Still, at about 66.5 on Friday, the VIX stood about 40% higher than the July lows, and it has… Read More

Market volatility is back. And it didn’t take long. From the low of the year set on July 24, the CBOE Volatility Index — also known as the Fear Index or simply the VIX — doubled less than two weeks later, rallying on August 5 to levels not seen since early January. Of course, by the end of the week, stocks recovered about half of their Monday losses (and ended the week 2.8% down). The volatility, accordingly, let up a little. Still, at about 66.5 on Friday, the VIX stood about 40% higher than the July lows, and it has continued to move higher again early this week. Here’s another way of looking at volatility: over the past two weeks, major indices such as the S&P 500 were posting relatively large moves — up or down 1% or more — every day. This is the longest such streak in years and, by some calculations, since the Great Recession. This looks like a great time to look for some defense. And coincidentally, I think investors may find it in the defense sector. While stocks officially classified as Aerospace and Defense might not be immune from the market’s volatility, these companies are… Read More

“Cash is king.” This common expression is often used when analyzing business or investment decisions. When buying real estate in a hot market, cash is king. If you come to the table with cash over more traditional financing methods, your offer will likely move to the top of the pecking order. The same principle can be applied to stock-picking. A company that produces a ton of cash or carries a good amount of cash in relation to debt is often seen as a “safer” investment compared with a company that’s debt-ridden. And when investors believe the market is getting too… Read More

“Cash is king.” This common expression is often used when analyzing business or investment decisions. When buying real estate in a hot market, cash is king. If you come to the table with cash over more traditional financing methods, your offer will likely move to the top of the pecking order. The same principle can be applied to stock-picking. A company that produces a ton of cash or carries a good amount of cash in relation to debt is often seen as a “safer” investment compared with a company that’s debt-ridden. And when investors believe the market is getting too hot or expensive, they will often stockpile cash to have on hand when the next pullback hits. This way, they can pick up shares of their favorite company at a better price. —Recommended Link— I’ve Never Been More Excited About An Opportunity Pot stocks are dominating the headlines. But I’m not biting. Because I’ve found a safer, smarter way to make money from the legal marijuana market. It’s a unique profit-sharing plan that’s allowing everyday Americans to earn up to $55,563 a year. And the payouts are 100% backed by a U.S. Federal Law. The… Read More

Yes, it’s a race to the bottom. I’m not talking about the market. I’m referring to interest rates. After a couple of wild weeks, stocks — as measured by the S&P 500 – are trading by only about 3% below their recent highs and are up 16.7% for the year. Interest rates, meanwhile, have continued to rush lower. #-ad_banner-#Just a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve executed its first interest rate cut since the Great Recession, three Asia-Pacific central banks surprised the market with an aggressive rate-cut move of their own. On Wednesday, August 7, Thailand, New Zealand and India… Read More

Yes, it’s a race to the bottom. I’m not talking about the market. I’m referring to interest rates. After a couple of wild weeks, stocks — as measured by the S&P 500 – are trading by only about 3% below their recent highs and are up 16.7% for the year. Interest rates, meanwhile, have continued to rush lower. #-ad_banner-#Just a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve executed its first interest rate cut since the Great Recession, three Asia-Pacific central banks surprised the market with an aggressive rate-cut move of their own. On Wednesday, August 7, Thailand, New Zealand and India all acted to lower their countries’ respective rates. On the very next day, the Philippines joined them. The developing countries now join the developed world in the rate-cutting process. Central banks in developed countries have already largely lowered rates to record levels, resulting in negative-rate policies in Europe. The ECB first ventured into the negative-rate territory five years ago, and the deposit rate now sits at a negative 0.4%.  Just a year ago, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was approaching 3% (2.92% on August 8, 2018) and investors were talking about selling bonds due to the inevitability of rates rising… Read More

By the time you read this, you must be well aware that something went wrong with the stock market rally.  Over the last week, the trade war escalated, with the slapping of new tariffs on Chinese goods and reports of China asking state-owned companies to suspend imports of U.S. agricultural products. China’s weakening of the yuan (below the closely watched 7 yuan-1 dollar exchange rate) to the lowest level in more than a decade has reignited currency-war fears as well. August 5 was the worst day of the year for the stock market, with the S&P 500 ending the day… Read More

By the time you read this, you must be well aware that something went wrong with the stock market rally.  Over the last week, the trade war escalated, with the slapping of new tariffs on Chinese goods and reports of China asking state-owned companies to suspend imports of U.S. agricultural products. China’s weakening of the yuan (below the closely watched 7 yuan-1 dollar exchange rate) to the lowest level in more than a decade has reignited currency-war fears as well. August 5 was the worst day of the year for the stock market, with the S&P 500 ending the day 5% lower than its July 12 peak, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropping almost 3.5% in just a day. —Recommended Link— Finally Released: The Strategy Behind Jim Fink’s $5 Million Fortune Master Trader Jim Fink has finally released the details on the system he personally used to walk away from Wall Street with a $5 million personal fortune. The first time we opened this system to the public, spots filled as fast as our team could process the requests. Don’t miss out on your chance to turn $5k into $125k in the next 12 months. Read More

It’s a small sampling, but backyard barbecues can give you a pretty good idea of the sentiment surrounding the stock market and economy. At these sorts of functions, I’m frequently asked what stock people should buy, or what I think of the latest hot IPO, or cryptocurrencies. However, the attitudes (and questions) these days have been centered around the economy and more specifically if we are entering a recession, or when the next recession will hit. I, of course, have no idea when the next recession will start. But the sense is that folks are nervously waiting for the balloon… Read More

It’s a small sampling, but backyard barbecues can give you a pretty good idea of the sentiment surrounding the stock market and economy. At these sorts of functions, I’m frequently asked what stock people should buy, or what I think of the latest hot IPO, or cryptocurrencies. However, the attitudes (and questions) these days have been centered around the economy and more specifically if we are entering a recession, or when the next recession will hit. I, of course, have no idea when the next recession will start. But the sense is that folks are nervously waiting for the balloon to pop and the hot air to quickly evaporate from this decade-long bull market. Despite the recent volatility, the S&P 500 still near all-time highs, the economy is chugging along at a good clip (3.1% GDP growth in the first quarter) and unemployment is at historic lows. We did see homes sales decline 1.7% in June, marking the 16th straight year-on-year decline in homes sales, which only further exacerbates people’s uneasiness about the economy. We also had one of the most notorious (and reliable) indicators alert us that we could see a recession in the next year… Why The Yield… Read More

Spooked by the threat of trade war acceleration and despite the quarter-point interest rate cut Wednesday, the market sold off practically all off all week. Then, on Monday morning, we learned that the Chinese government had allowed its currency, the yuan, to slide to its lowest levels in more than a decade. The market sold off sharply as a result. Despite this slide though, large-cap indices still trade close to their all-time highs. The market is losing momentum, but the buyers can return as fast as they retreated if the market senses that the worst of the trade war is… Read More

Spooked by the threat of trade war acceleration and despite the quarter-point interest rate cut Wednesday, the market sold off practically all off all week. Then, on Monday morning, we learned that the Chinese government had allowed its currency, the yuan, to slide to its lowest levels in more than a decade. The market sold off sharply as a result. Despite this slide though, large-cap indices still trade close to their all-time highs. The market is losing momentum, but the buyers can return as fast as they retreated if the market senses that the worst of the trade war is over or if the Fed indicates more dovishness. In the meantime, investors have clearly become more cautious, booking profits on their best stocks of the year and taking losses on some of the laggards. —Recommended Link— The Real Reason Most Americans Can’t Retire by 65 If you’re following traditional retirement advice that made sense 50 years ago… You may be missing out on the most effective retirement strategy today. Here’s all you need to know to retire as early as this year. Let’s Go Hunting For Momentum In a normal… Read More

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it will lower interest rates by 25 basis points. This is the first cut we’ve seen in a decade, and rates are already low by historical standards.  Cheaper money, by design, is intended to stimulate the economy and to make sure investing is still preferable to saving.  Another upshot: more financing available to private companies. And it’s not just private equity. —Recommended Link— The Real Reason Most Americans Can’t Retire by 65 If you’re following traditional retirement advice that made sense 50 years ago… You may be missing… Read More

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it will lower interest rates by 25 basis points. This is the first cut we’ve seen in a decade, and rates are already low by historical standards.  Cheaper money, by design, is intended to stimulate the economy and to make sure investing is still preferable to saving.  Another upshot: more financing available to private companies. And it’s not just private equity. —Recommended Link— The Real Reason Most Americans Can’t Retire by 65 If you’re following traditional retirement advice that made sense 50 years ago… You may be missing out on the most effective retirement strategy today. Here’s all you need to know to retire as early as this year. In the past few years, mutual funds and hedge funds have been actively investing in privately-held tech companies and startups in their search for market-beating returns. This brings more money to private companies, and paves the way to building relationships and to receiving more shares when those companies go public. Here’s another byproduct of low interest rates: companies stay private for longer. Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOGL) went public in… Read More

If I had to name the biggest game-changing trend of the past decade — a trend that has disturbed the most companies, made the biggest organizational impact, changed the way businesses are structured, and impacted the most lives — it would be cloud computing.  Nothing short of a paradigm change, the advent of the cloud has truly transformed the way most technology companies do business. Even consumer companies have been significantly affected by the shift.  #-ad_banner-#The premise behind the cloud computing is simple: When technology — from simple applications to complete data centers — is delivered over the internet, it… Read More

If I had to name the biggest game-changing trend of the past decade — a trend that has disturbed the most companies, made the biggest organizational impact, changed the way businesses are structured, and impacted the most lives — it would be cloud computing.  Nothing short of a paradigm change, the advent of the cloud has truly transformed the way most technology companies do business. Even consumer companies have been significantly affected by the shift.  #-ad_banner-#The premise behind the cloud computing is simple: When technology — from simple applications to complete data centers — is delivered over the internet, it can be delivered as-needed, or on-demand. This on-demand business is now known as the cloud.  The on-demand feature makes everything easier. Companies have found that signing up for on-demand services is the easiest way to meet their future needs; the cloud-based model can easily get you more (or less), depending on how those needs change.  It also turns out that consuming technology over the internet is less expensive than doing it the traditional way: Basically, you pay for what you use — no more, no less. It requires much less hardware, too: All the hard work is done somewhere off-site… Read More

Investors are faced with a mountain of information, strategies and tactics to choose from. Value, growth, momentum, options, futures… which strategy is right for you? While every strategy has their pros and cons, one of the better-performing strategies has come from focusing on growth stocks. Growth stocks have certainly done well over the last decade, outpacing the popular value approach over that time period. But that doesn’t mean we should ignore value.  In fact, long-term studies still suggest that following a disciplined contrarian, value-driven strategy is the best path to success. Value investors argue that while the market may be… Read More

Investors are faced with a mountain of information, strategies and tactics to choose from. Value, growth, momentum, options, futures… which strategy is right for you? While every strategy has their pros and cons, one of the better-performing strategies has come from focusing on growth stocks. Growth stocks have certainly done well over the last decade, outpacing the popular value approach over that time period. But that doesn’t mean we should ignore value.  In fact, long-term studies still suggest that following a disciplined contrarian, value-driven strategy is the best path to success. Value investors argue that while the market may be efficient in the long term, emotions often dominate in the short run. These emotions can overtake rational analysis, pushing a stock’s price above its intrinsic value during periods of euphoria and below its true worth when reacting to bad news. Value screens, such as searching for stocks with a low price-earnings ratio, typically look for low prices relative to actual measures of company performance or assets. The price-earnings ratio, or multiple, is computed by dividing a stock’s price by its most recent 12 months’ earnings per share. The price-earnings ratio is followed closely because it embodies the market’s expectations of… Read More