The U.N.-sponsored COP-21 conference taking place in Paris this month is expected to result in a binding international agreement to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. All of the largest economies have already made commitments, and political momentum for an agreement has never been higher — especially given the mounting scientific evidence that the world is reaching a point of irreversible consequences if nothing changes. #-ad_banner-#While details remain under discussion, there’s little doubt about the areas that will be impacted. The biggest carbon emitters are power plants, especially coal plants; cars; and factories, especially chemical plants. Governments are… Read More

The U.N.-sponsored COP-21 conference taking place in Paris this month is expected to result in a binding international agreement to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. All of the largest economies have already made commitments, and political momentum for an agreement has never been higher — especially given the mounting scientific evidence that the world is reaching a point of irreversible consequences if nothing changes. #-ad_banner-#While details remain under discussion, there’s little doubt about the areas that will be impacted. The biggest carbon emitters are power plants, especially coal plants; cars; and factories, especially chemical plants. Governments are expected to accelerate the trend toward using cleaner fuels for these purposes — and over the long run, to shift considerably away from fossil fuels toward renewable fuel sources. I wrote about the industries I expect to suffer from any agreements made at the COP-21 here. In short, the industries that will be most hurt will be coal; oil and natural gas; paper and packaging; and chemicals. As for the industries that should get a boost(renewable energy (solar and wind); power storage; equipment makers; and infrastructure), I wrote in length about those industries here. Today, I’m presenting three specific stocks… Read More

Back in September, I noted how comments stemming from media giant Disney’s (NYSE: DIS) third-quarter earnings announcement caused a broad selloff in the media sector. Before I update you on the situation (including a new way to profit), let’s recap what I said:       On August 4, media entertainment giant Disney reported quarterly earnings. In its conference call, management said that cable subscriptions to its ESPN network would fall about 1% in 2016. For some reason, this seemed to shock investors, although this was not new news. The so-called “cord-cutting” movement — that is, consumers… Read More

Back in September, I noted how comments stemming from media giant Disney’s (NYSE: DIS) third-quarter earnings announcement caused a broad selloff in the media sector. Before I update you on the situation (including a new way to profit), let’s recap what I said:       On August 4, media entertainment giant Disney reported quarterly earnings. In its conference call, management said that cable subscriptions to its ESPN network would fall about 1% in 2016. For some reason, this seemed to shock investors, although this was not new news. The so-called “cord-cutting” movement — that is, consumers who choose to drop their cable services in favor of cheaper streaming alternatives like Netflix and Hulu — has been a known factor for some time. Nevertheless, shares of Disney took a dive, and are off nearly 15% since then. I went on to note how the loss in subscribers should have already been a known-quantity among investors and thus priced into the stock. It was also well-known that ESPN had undertaken a program of cost cutting measures, which had yet to take full effect. Combine that with ESPN’s unique position among cable networks and Disney’s upcoming… Read More

As we roll through Thanksgiving and into the holiday season, investors can look ahead with some trepidation about turmoil in the Middle East, slowing growth in China and rising interest rates here at home. But there are plenty of reasons to be thankful, as well. For one, U.S. stocks have remained in an extended bull market for many years. The S&P 500 has a five-year annualized return of 14.2%, a tremendous run that has helped millions of Americans recover from the losses of the financial crisis. And while stocks have taken a relative breather this year, they remain in an… Read More

As we roll through Thanksgiving and into the holiday season, investors can look ahead with some trepidation about turmoil in the Middle East, slowing growth in China and rising interest rates here at home. But there are plenty of reasons to be thankful, as well. For one, U.S. stocks have remained in an extended bull market for many years. The S&P 500 has a five-year annualized return of 14.2%, a tremendous run that has helped millions of Americans recover from the losses of the financial crisis. And while stocks have taken a relative breather this year, they remain in an uptrend that could well continue given the U.S. economy’s resilience. #-ad_banner-#Earlier this week, the Commerce Department revised upward its estimate for third quarter U.S. GDP growth to a 2.1% annual pace — not gangbusters, but quite healthy given the strong dollar, which hurts U.S. exports, and the ongoing woes in the energy sector. Two more positive reports came Wednesday morning: new jobless claims fell more than expected, and durable goods orders rose more than expected. So despite the headwinds, the U.S. economy keeps chugging along. We’re enjoying a long period of moderate growth. That’s less thrilling than a short period… Read More

On December 20, 1922, a surveyor — J.G. Tierney — made his way along the Colorado River by barge. Tierney, who worked for the U.S. government, was surveying a remote spot in the Mojave Desert called Boulder Canyon. Boulder Canyon sits in the middle of some of the most unforgiving land in America. During the summer, temperatures frequently top out near 120 degrees. Fewer than five inches of rain fall each year. Rattlesnakes and scorpions hide under rocks. And the sharp cliffs are near-impossible to scale. And yet, this canyon in the heart of the desert holds one of the… Read More

On December 20, 1922, a surveyor — J.G. Tierney — made his way along the Colorado River by barge. Tierney, who worked for the U.S. government, was surveying a remote spot in the Mojave Desert called Boulder Canyon. Boulder Canyon sits in the middle of some of the most unforgiving land in America. During the summer, temperatures frequently top out near 120 degrees. Fewer than five inches of rain fall each year. Rattlesnakes and scorpions hide under rocks. And the sharp cliffs are near-impossible to scale. And yet, this canyon in the heart of the desert holds one of the greatest investments in U.S. history… one that has generated billions of dollars in wealth and is practically guaranteed to keep doing so for decades. But it wasn’t without its costs. In total, 112 men — beginning with J.G. Tierney, who on that December day drowned after falling off the barge that carried him and his equipment — died to create this investment. I’m talking about the Hoover Dam. Before I get too far… no, I am not recommending that you invest in the Hoover Dam. Even if you wanted to, it’s fully owned by the U.S. government. There’s not a… Read More

Volatility is ticking up in the U.S. stock market — no surprise, after the tragic terrorist attack in Paris last week, the political debate that followed, continued mixed signals on the economic front and the upcoming climate change talks in Paris Big moves in the market can cause anxiety, but they can also represent an opportunity for savvy investors. In this case they could be a chance to add shares of stocks most likely to overperform in 2016. Several signs point to a shift in market leadership from growth stocks — the darlings of recent years — to value stocks,… Read More

Volatility is ticking up in the U.S. stock market — no surprise, after the tragic terrorist attack in Paris last week, the political debate that followed, continued mixed signals on the economic front and the upcoming climate change talks in Paris Big moves in the market can cause anxiety, but they can also represent an opportunity for savvy investors. In this case they could be a chance to add shares of stocks most likely to overperform in 2016. Several signs point to a shift in market leadership from growth stocks — the darlings of recent years — to value stocks, making now a great time to buy. Most important, recent strong job growth figures indicate that the Federal Reserve is very likely to raise short-term interest rates in December, the first of what could be a multi-step process of rate hikes as the Fed moves modestly away from the emergency zero-interest-rate policy of the post-financial crisis period to a more traditional low-rate stance. The November jobs report showed the U.S. unemployment rate at only 5%. Below that level, economists tend to predict that inflation will rise. That’s because higher employment levels correlate with rising consumer spending, which can push prices… Read More

Large infrastructure projects can mean a boom for the economy and users of the new structures once they’re done but construction can seem to go on forever. Shares of companies that will benefit from the new structures are bid up only to come back down when mega-projects get delayed and run over budget.  One such project has gone nearly two years over schedule and more than a billion dollars over budget. Once a hot subject among investors, this project has faded into the background after more than eight years of construction. But a new progress report shows light at the… Read More

Large infrastructure projects can mean a boom for the economy and users of the new structures once they’re done but construction can seem to go on forever. Shares of companies that will benefit from the new structures are bid up only to come back down when mega-projects get delayed and run over budget.  One such project has gone nearly two years over schedule and more than a billion dollars over budget. Once a hot subject among investors, this project has faded into the background after more than eight years of construction. But a new progress report shows light at the end of the tunnel. The building consortium has given a completion date for early next year. And one company stands to gain on multiple fronts while the project’s completion could touch off a rebound for an unloved industry. An Expanded Panama Canal And A Boom For East Coast Shipping Despite news of leakage in the third lock, representatives of the building consortium insist that the Panama Canal expansion will be completed by April 2016. The project has run over-budget and way past its original October 2014 deadline, but now completion is in sight.  The new canal will support ships… Read More

You often hear about recession-resistant investments, especially in the years since 2008… when the financial world was burning to the ground. #-ad_banner-#But if you had to guess which industry performs the best in all bear markets — one that delivered 9.5% returns in 2008 (when the S&P 500 lost a third of its value) and more than tripled in value during the Great Depression (when other stocks lost more than two-thirds of their value) — what would your guess be? Unless you read the same studies and research as me, I’m guessing you wouldn’t answer trees. That’s right… and it… Read More

You often hear about recession-resistant investments, especially in the years since 2008… when the financial world was burning to the ground. #-ad_banner-#But if you had to guess which industry performs the best in all bear markets — one that delivered 9.5% returns in 2008 (when the S&P 500 lost a third of its value) and more than tripled in value during the Great Depression (when other stocks lost more than two-thirds of their value) — what would your guess be? Unless you read the same studies and research as me, I’m guessing you wouldn’t answer trees. That’s right… and it makes sense too. A tree doesn’t know anything about too-big-to-fail banks, tech bubbles or savings and loan scandals. They keep growing, constantly getting bigger… offering more resources to harvest. Timberland is not just a good bet for bear markets, however. Over the last 18 quarters — four and a half years — the NCREIF Timberland Index has only had one negative quarter of performance. And that one barely counts, since the index fell just 0.35%. So even though trees aren’t necessarily a sexy investment, it’s one you should pay attention to… or at the very least… Read More

The personal computer, the Internet and mobile devices all revolutionized our society. But over the past two or three years, it seems the pace of innovation has slowed — at least for consumers. Yes, we’ve seen the introduction of better, faster smartphones and variations on the theme such as smart watches. But what’s next? The answer, technologists say, is the “Internet of Things” — a new wave of real-world uses for smart technologies such as networking, sensors, GPS, data collection and management, and the like. The idea is to make more machines “smart.” The most commonly cited examples are Fitbits,… Read More

The personal computer, the Internet and mobile devices all revolutionized our society. But over the past two or three years, it seems the pace of innovation has slowed — at least for consumers. Yes, we’ve seen the introduction of better, faster smartphones and variations on the theme such as smart watches. But what’s next? The answer, technologists say, is the “Internet of Things” — a new wave of real-world uses for smart technologies such as networking, sensors, GPS, data collection and management, and the like. The idea is to make more machines “smart.” The most commonly cited examples are Fitbits, which monitor exercise stats and store them as data for later analysis. When you use your smartphone to turn up the thermostat remotely, you’re using the Internet of Things. Less popular so far, but on the market: smart tennis rackets, saucepans and silverware (spoons that tell you how much soup or ice cream you’ve eaten). While some of these products seem more fanciful than practical, experts agree that there’s huge room for growth in Internet of Things (or “IOT”) applications. For example, manufacturing costs may be reduced significantly by efficiency improvements brought by machines that are not only automated but… Read More

When he buys a stock, Warren Buffett places more emphasis on one factor above almost any other. Since 1986 he has mentioned this single trait more than 20 times in his annual shareholder letters. He calls it “essential for sustained success.” However, you won’t find it listed on a company’s balance sheet. Its value doesn’t rise and fall with the market. And even if a company reports great earnings, the worth of this one advantage still can’t be calculated. But that doesn’t keep it from being a company’s most valuable possession. Take the nasty bear market of 2008 and 2009. Read More

When he buys a stock, Warren Buffett places more emphasis on one factor above almost any other. Since 1986 he has mentioned this single trait more than 20 times in his annual shareholder letters. He calls it “essential for sustained success.” However, you won’t find it listed on a company’s balance sheet. Its value doesn’t rise and fall with the market. And even if a company reports great earnings, the worth of this one advantage still can’t be calculated. But that doesn’t keep it from being a company’s most valuable possession. Take the nasty bear market of 2008 and 2009. From its peak to trough, the S&P lost more than 55%. No investment completely avoided the downfall. Well, almost no investment. Of the 500 stocks in the S&P, only nine made money during that period. Of those nine stocks, six of them (two-thirds) had this advantage. But this advantage also helps these stocks beat the market in uptrends, too. After all, Buffett has made billions thanks to companies with this trait. So what single advantage can capture the attention of Warren Buffett… help a stock beat the market in an uptrend… and help it fall less in a downtrend? That… Read More

Even though crude oil is languishing below $50 a barrel, the energy sector has been showing signs of life in the past month. Since rebounding off its late-September low, the sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 7 percentage points. Some oil services stocks have already broken out to the upside, but I spotted one that is just starting to make its move. While the long-term trend is still officially to the downside, every long-term reversal starts with a short-term one.  And that’s what we’re seeing now with oil and gas exploration and production company Murphy… Read More

Even though crude oil is languishing below $50 a barrel, the energy sector has been showing signs of life in the past month. Since rebounding off its late-September low, the sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 7 percentage points. Some oil services stocks have already broken out to the upside, but I spotted one that is just starting to make its move. While the long-term trend is still officially to the downside, every long-term reversal starts with a short-term one.  And that’s what we’re seeing now with oil and gas exploration and production company Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR). The easiest pattern to spot on the chart is an upside down or inverted head-and-shoulders. It is defined by a central trough (head) surrounded by roughly equal but shallower troughs (shoulders). A line connects the highs between these troughs to define the resistance line known as the neckline.  Because this is a reversal pattern, we expect to see many indicators setting higher lows as the pattern progresses. Indeed, we’re seeing that in momentum readings for Murphy Oil, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI). #-ad_banner-# But that alone is not enough to confirm a bottom. So… Read More