When stocks or commodities are tumbling, traders start to prepare for “capitulation.” That’s typically the final phase in a sell-off, characterized by a complete absence of buyers and one last massive exit by sellers.  Investors are hoping we are nearing the capitulation phase in oil prices and related stocks. First, an increasing number of hedge funds are using options contracts to position their portfolios for an imminent rebound in crude prices. Second, oil industry insiders have tacitly declared a bottom by embarking on a large-scale wave of insider buying.  There is good reason to believe that oil prices… Read More

When stocks or commodities are tumbling, traders start to prepare for “capitulation.” That’s typically the final phase in a sell-off, characterized by a complete absence of buyers and one last massive exit by sellers.  Investors are hoping we are nearing the capitulation phase in oil prices and related stocks. First, an increasing number of hedge funds are using options contracts to position their portfolios for an imminent rebound in crude prices. Second, oil industry insiders have tacitly declared a bottom by embarking on a large-scale wave of insider buying.  There is good reason to believe that oil prices have come close to a bottom, and it’s known in economic circles as “supply destruction.” More and more oil exploration projects are being cancelled as $65 oil makes these efforts much less feasible. There’s no way to precisely correlate supply cuts with price support, but the longer-term impact is undeniable: Energy producers will pump less oil out of the ground in 2015 and 2016 than they had planned to just six months ago. #-ad_banner-#Assuming oil prices find a floor near current levels, a number of energy stocks are poised to stage a relief rally. The key is to… Read More

In the world of investing, winners stay in the spotlight while laggards get pushed into the shadows. Often times, these stocks get pushed off the radar as investors brace for a period of operational headwinds. Yet as those headwinds abate, opportunity knocks. That’s the set-up in place for Itron, Inc. (Nasdaq: ITRI), one of the world’s leading providers of water, electric and gas meters for use in homes, commercial buildings and industrial settings.The company’s share price slid nearly 15% since February 2013, while the S&P 500 has surged more than 35%. To be sure, Itron has been through the ringer,… Read More

In the world of investing, winners stay in the spotlight while laggards get pushed into the shadows. Often times, these stocks get pushed off the radar as investors brace for a period of operational headwinds. Yet as those headwinds abate, opportunity knocks. That’s the set-up in place for Itron, Inc. (Nasdaq: ITRI), one of the world’s leading providers of water, electric and gas meters for use in homes, commercial buildings and industrial settings.The company’s share price slid nearly 15% since February 2013, while the S&P 500 has surged more than 35%. To be sure, Itron has been through the ringer, as long-term contracts expired, new contract signings have been postponed and public spending on infrastructure has lagged. The company’s revenue base shrank from $2.43 billion in 2011 to an estimated $1.95 billion this year. A lack of profits in three of the past five years surely impacted shares as well.   2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue (billions) $1.7 $2.3 $2.4 $2.2 $2.0 Net Income (millions) -$2 $105 -$510 $108 -$147 Despite the company’s 2014 headwinds, I think Itron is turning the corner and could be poised for a nice run in 2015 and beyond. Growing Some Smarts The meter… Read More

As an American expat living in Colombia, I have had a first-hand view of the major economic changes taking place across South America.                            #-ad_banner-#​I first warned investors in November of last year that Brazil was heading for fiscal ruin and highlighted Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) as an underperformer, just before the state-controlled oil giant tumbled lower. Though Brazilian stocks received a pre-election bounce this past summer, I again warned investors that a likely… Read More

As an American expat living in Colombia, I have had a first-hand view of the major economic changes taking place across South America.                            #-ad_banner-#​I first warned investors in November of last year that Brazil was heading for fiscal ruin and highlighted Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) as an underperformer, just before the state-controlled oil giant tumbled lower. Though Brazilian stocks received a pre-election bounce this past summer, I again warned investors that a likely political outcome would bring fresh bad news for Brazilian stocks. Since then, the iShares MSCI Brazil Fund (NYSEMKT: EWZ) has tumbled 20%. As bad as it looks for the region, especially for powerhouse economies like Brazil and Argentina, things could get a lot worse in 2015. Even the seemingly healthier Chilean and Colombian economies may not be safe for investors over the next twelve months. But can you afford to completely neglect stocks of Latin American companies? After all, the region is still expected to post GDP growth of more than 2% in 2015… Read More

Any value investor will tell you there is a fine line between super deal and value trap. Just about everyone has their story of that seemingly cheap stock that got even cheaper and left them disappointed.  That’s why you always need to look to the reasons for a stock’s value and management’s plan for the future. Some stocks seem cheap on an analysis of the business assets, but management has no real plan for growth, which is especially important since value stocks are often in mature industries.  Other value stocks may be cheap relative to the market but still relatively… Read More

Any value investor will tell you there is a fine line between super deal and value trap. Just about everyone has their story of that seemingly cheap stock that got even cheaper and left them disappointed.  That’s why you always need to look to the reasons for a stock’s value and management’s plan for the future. Some stocks seem cheap on an analysis of the business assets, but management has no real plan for growth, which is especially important since value stocks are often in mature industries.  Other value stocks may be cheap relative to the market but still relatively expensive versus their peers. So even if investor sentiment for the industry turns for the better, the stock may not rise as much as others in the space.  But every once in a while you can find that proverbial diamond in the rough. And I think I’ve found it in one of the cheapest stocks in the S&P 500. #-ad_banner-#News Corporation (NASDAQ: NWSA) trades at just 0.67 times book value, making it the fourth cheapest stock in the S&P 500 based on Bloomberg data. Of course, the big price-to-book (P/B) discount is not completely without rationale. The publishing industry is… Read More

You know the old saying, “the rich get richer…” Well, when it comes to Bill Gates, it surely is true. He amassed a multi-billion dollar fortune when he ran Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and he’s making a lot more money through his two investment firms, Cascade Investments and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust. (Credit also goes to a savvy right-hand man, Michael Larson, who by one recent account, has helped Gates grow his post-Microsoft nest egg to $82 billion from $5 billion.) That’s why so many investors track the ongoing portfolio moves by Gates,… Read More

You know the old saying, “the rich get richer…” Well, when it comes to Bill Gates, it surely is true. He amassed a multi-billion dollar fortune when he ran Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and he’s making a lot more money through his two investment firms, Cascade Investments and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust. (Credit also goes to a savvy right-hand man, Michael Larson, who by one recent account, has helped Gates grow his post-Microsoft nest egg to $82 billion from $5 billion.) That’s why so many investors track the ongoing portfolio moves by Gates, Larson and their team. Simply following in their wake can help generate solid portfolio gains. But there’s a catch. These folks don’t make short-term trades, they make long-term investments. I profiled that approach a few years ago as Gates and his team kept buying shares of AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE: AN), even as shares repeatedly hit new highs. In an ideal world, you can find a stock that Bill Gates loves, and buy it for a lower price than even the tech legend paid. And we found a stock that fits the bill: It’s fallen in value since Gates bought shares,… Read More

Although the market has recovered from the  October selloff, buying opportunities can still be had. The key is to focus on stocks which have been beset by recent company-specific woes, but still possess long-term appeal. #-ad_banner-#One example: Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. (NYSE: VSI), which has lagged consensus profit forecasts for two-straight quarters. An especially pronounced 10% shortfall in Q3 was mainly the result of higher acquisition costs. Shares of Vitamin Shoppe are now off 10% year-to-date, versus more than a 12% gain for the S&P 500. But the recent price decline is a temporary setback that only adds to the stock’s… Read More

Although the market has recovered from the  October selloff, buying opportunities can still be had. The key is to focus on stocks which have been beset by recent company-specific woes, but still possess long-term appeal. #-ad_banner-#One example: Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. (NYSE: VSI), which has lagged consensus profit forecasts for two-straight quarters. An especially pronounced 10% shortfall in Q3 was mainly the result of higher acquisition costs. Shares of Vitamin Shoppe are now off 10% year-to-date, versus more than a 12% gain for the S&P 500. But the recent price decline is a temporary setback that only adds to the stock’s long-term appeal. That’s because this leading provider of vitamins, supplements and other health-related products is taking steps to reinvigorate sales and profits. Recent troubles aside, the Vitamin Shoppe has consistently shown strong top-line improvement. From 2008 to 2013, revenues surged from around $600 million to nearly $1.1 billion. Analysts anticipate 11%-to-12% growth in 2014 and 2015, by which time sales are expected to approach $1.4 billion. Like most successful retailers, the Vitamin Shoppe has been able to boost sales by carving out a large base of loyal customers. For example, its no-fee “Healthy Awards Program” allows customers to… Read More

Over the last decade, we’ve published thousands of in-depth research reports. Everything from high dividend payers, game-changing innovations, top stocks in emerging markets — you name it, we’ve told you how to profit from it. But the research I’m going to tell you about today stands head and shoulders above everything else we’ve ever done. In fact, it ranks as our single most popular report of all time. #-ad_banner-#Each year, we update the report with our team’s most recent findings. And frankly, I think what we’ve come up with this year represents a major breakthrough. We call it: “The 10… Read More

Over the last decade, we’ve published thousands of in-depth research reports. Everything from high dividend payers, game-changing innovations, top stocks in emerging markets — you name it, we’ve told you how to profit from it. But the research I’m going to tell you about today stands head and shoulders above everything else we’ve ever done. In fact, it ranks as our single most popular report of all time. #-ad_banner-#Each year, we update the report with our team’s most recent findings. And frankly, I think what we’ve come up with this year represents a major breakthrough. We call it: “The 10 Stocks To Own For The Rest Of Your Life”. You’ve probably heard us talk about the idea of “Forever Stocks” before. Simply put, these are solid companies that we think you can feel confident buying and holding onto for years, even decades. And we believe they will continue rewarding investors for years on end… crushing the market over the long run. They’re the kinds of stocks you’d ideally want to own forever. Owning solid, stable companies “forever” may sound ridiculously simple. In fact, I bet I could tell 10 people about this strategy and 9 of them would flat ignore… Read More

I’ve done it. I’ve found a stock so impressive I actually want to own it forever. It’s not any of the usual suspects like Apple, Google, or Starbucks. #-ad_banner-#No, the company behind this brand traces its roots back 120 years to 1894. It made more than 3 billion units of its product for the military during World War II. Some of it was even sent to the moon with the Apollo astronauts. It’s one of the most storied, iconic brands in American history… and it holds a massive 44.5% share of its market to this very day.  Figured it out… Read More

I’ve done it. I’ve found a stock so impressive I actually want to own it forever. It’s not any of the usual suspects like Apple, Google, or Starbucks. #-ad_banner-#No, the company behind this brand traces its roots back 120 years to 1894. It made more than 3 billion units of its product for the military during World War II. Some of it was even sent to the moon with the Apollo astronauts. It’s one of the most storied, iconic brands in American history… and it holds a massive 44.5% share of its market to this very day.  Figured it out yet? Here’s one more clue… The company makes a product so addictive that its factories have to produce more than 80 million units every single day just to keep up with consumers’ constant demand. The products I’m talking about are those iconic Hershey’s Kisses, and the company I want to hold forever is, of course, Hershey. The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) is the leading manufacturer of chocolate and non-chocolate confectionary, as well as all chocolate-related grocery products in North America. Additionally, the company carries a strong international presence with operations in more than 90 countries worldwide. Over its history, Hershey… Read More

In a perfectly efficient market, companies that deliver positive quarterly results and outlooks for future quarters will rally higher, and companies that deliver subpar results fall in value. But earnings season can be overwhelming, as thousands of companies hold conference calls in a multi-week span, that most investors need additional time to process what they have just seen and heard. #-ad_banner-#That spells opportunity for fast-moving investors. If you can spot good companies, with solid operating momentum, before the crowd takes notice, then you can be positioned for solid upside.  Here are three stocks that delivered a “beat and raise” quarter… Read More

In a perfectly efficient market, companies that deliver positive quarterly results and outlooks for future quarters will rally higher, and companies that deliver subpar results fall in value. But earnings season can be overwhelming, as thousands of companies hold conference calls in a multi-week span, that most investors need additional time to process what they have just seen and heard. #-ad_banner-#That spells opportunity for fast-moving investors. If you can spot good companies, with solid operating momentum, before the crowd takes notice, then you can be positioned for solid upside.  Here are three stocks that delivered a “beat and raise” quarter — meaning they exceeded Q3 results and also issued a bullish forward view — that have yet to see share prices rally higher. TRI Pointe Homes, Inc. (NYSE: TPH) It’s an old business maxim that the best time to launch a new business is when its industry is in turmoil. That creates an opportunity to dislocate the entrenched market share leaders, at a time when those leaders are retrenching. That explains why Starwood Capital’s Barry Sternlicht, known mostly for building upscale hotels, decided to enter the housing market in 2009, through the creation of Tri Point Homes. But Sternlicht… Read More

It’s always wise to have spare funds whenever earnings season rolls around. Inevitably, a handful of companies will deliver disappointing quarterly results, or a dim near-term outlook, leading investors to dump the stock. On some occasions, the selling is massively overdone, and if you are willing to be patient and let the bar reset for a quarter or two, then some of these stocks can post an impressive snapback rally — once the forward view has begun to strengthen. With that in mind, I took a look at all the stocks in the S&P 400, 500 and 600 that have… Read More

It’s always wise to have spare funds whenever earnings season rolls around. Inevitably, a handful of companies will deliver disappointing quarterly results, or a dim near-term outlook, leading investors to dump the stock. On some occasions, the selling is massively overdone, and if you are willing to be patient and let the bar reset for a quarter or two, then some of these stocks can post an impressive snapback rally — once the forward view has begun to strengthen. With that in mind, I took a look at all the stocks in the S&P 400, 500 and 600 that have slid at least 15% over the past month. Most look like dead money, but a few now hold clear appeal, especially since they have catalysts in place for a better 2015. Pain In The Oil Patch Of course the energy sector has been the biggest loser this earnings season. Until recently, oil appeared to stabilize in the $80 a barrel area, though we’ve now breached that level and a move toward $70 may be the end result. As I’ve noted on several recent occasions, a wide range of oil-related companies would still fare well, even at $70 oil, but as… Read More